>[!External Links]- >[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_change#Methodology) >[Bond article](https://www.bond.org.uk/resources/theory-of-change-for-advocacy-and-campaigns) ## Introduction A Theory of Change (ToC): - Looks at long term vision - Then looks at how that is achieved. - Outlines causal linkages in an initiative. - Needs to have 'rationales' for each section of the chain. ## Steps 1. Work out what is the overall change - Think long term (3 years+). What does the change look/ feel/sound like? Create newspaper headlines. 2. Work out what the 'preconditions' are - Also called critical success factors - What has to happen before the overall change comes about? - Think about the obstacles to achieving that vision, and then flip it to its opposite. - A force-field analysis can be helpful here. 3. Work out what our contribution is - Lots of organisations might share the same goal(s). - Think about the skills experience and knowledge that is required to ensure that these preconditions are met. - Consider our value, and where we can have most impact on each pre-condition. **Some of them we won't work on at all!** - Links to [[VRIO]]. Perhaps do this first. 4. Work out what progress and impact looks like. - Often this is too ambitious. Progress needs to be identified as bite-sized chunks - Meetings with people who previously refused to meet with us - Small amounts of money from people who previously didn't rate us. - Link your activities to progress and impact. Some activities will have multiple impacts. Looks like this: ![[Pasted image 20220613140502.png]] 5. Conduct a [[Premortem]] 6. Test your theory of change (see below) 7. Review and reflect regularly. ## Tests for the ToC There are three main tests, as outlined by Anne Kubisch 1) Plausability- is it logical? Are the preconditions necessary and sufficient? 2) Feasability- is it realistic? Is the organisation (and partners) appropriately resourced? 3) Testability- are the indicators solid and measurable? SMART? Convincing? They also have an "accountability ceiling" where the organisation no longer measures the impact. ## Links - [[Salford SU Theory of Change]]